Naples & Southwest Florida Real Estate
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63% of Floridians fear falling home prices


DALLAS – Aug. 8, 2017 – In 2005, few homebuyers thought housing prices would ever fall, but the housing crisis legacy has changed attitudes. In the latest Modern Homebuyer Survey released by ValueInsured, a majority of Americans and Floridians have “simmering concerns about overheated home prices and increasingly suspect that a housing price correction may be imminent.”

However, the survey also found a lot of positive housing attitudes: Home prices are rising and inventory is low, keeping housing confidence on a positive trajectory. Additionally, nearly eight in 10 Americans (79 percent) still say homeownership is an important part of their American Dream.

As a result, the Housing Confidence Index score remained stable at 68.7 on a hundred-point scale, up a single percentage point from April.

Housing market is overheated?

Although Americans are committed to homeownership, their confidence in buying now, and their expectation that homes will hold their current value, has measurably declined: 57 percent of American homeowners believe homes in their area are overvalued and current prices are unsustainable – up 7 percentage points since last quarter. These fears are especially evident among urbanites, with 65 percent of homeowners and homebuyers saying housing is overvalued and home prices unsustainable.

Prospective homebuyers as a whole are also warier: 63 percent of all homebuyers and 72 percent of millennial homebuyers say they’re concerned with timing the market and want to ensure they are not “buying high” – a double-digit jump from three months ago.

“We see more homebuyers concerned with timing the market,” says Joe Melendez, CEO of ValueInsured. “This is especially true for millennials, who are more likely to switch jobs, relocate or need to upsize in the next few years. No one wants to buy at the peak and find themselves underwater as so many did a decade ago.”

Have home values hit the ceiling?

A majority of homeowners think a housing market peak is at least close: 58 percent of homeowners expect a “housing bubble and a price correction” in the next two years – up 12 percentage points since April.

On the seller side, however, more than eight in 10 homeowners (83 percent) think it’s a good time to sell, a 9-point jump from last quarter. But only 43 percent of first-time homebuyers are confident that a home they buy today will gain value by the end of 2018.

States most worried about a price correction

U.S. residents in hot housing states are particularly jittery. The top five states where residents believe the market is approaching a “housing bubble” include:

1. Washington (71 percent)

2. New York (68 percent)

3. Florida (63 percent)

4. California (59 percent)

5. Texas (58 percent)

Market fluctuations key millennial concern

Experts suggest that homebuyers who plan to live in a property more than seven years lower their exposure to market fluctuations – but only 37 percent of millennials in the survey planned to live in their next home for more than six years. That makes the “rule of seven” less relevant to the next generation of serial homebuyers.

“Beyond the jitters, I see in our survey an increasingly informed nation of homebuyers who understand the risk of the market,” says Melendez. “To those concerned about a price correction, or waiting to time the market, I recommend a proactive approach. Have an exit plan, then anytime you find a home you love is a good time to buy.”

© 2017 Florida Realtors

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